The Problem of Energy

A. Vulnerability of OECD economies
1. From 1958 oil had been cheaper than coal as a fuel
2. On eve of 1973 war very little American spare capacity in production
B. Immediate Effects on the Economy
1. Drastic price increase
2. US and Japanese GNP drops
3. Interest rates rise to 21.5%
C. Psychological Effect
1. Perceived threat to what had become a "normal" standard of living for Americans, Europeans, and Japanese
2. Threat to the automobility and personal mobility of the average American
3. Heightened focus on the Middle East for politicians, generals, and consumers
D. Realization of the vital role of energy and the specificity of our own energy system: the system of Hydrocarbon Man
E. Less obvious perhaps: energy has always been the basis of society

A. The short period of civilization and industrialization
1. Civilization has lasted only 5,000 years vs. final appearance of homo sapiens sapiens (50,000 yrs)
2. Industrialization has been around for barely a quarter of a millenium

If human evolution had taken place in the course of a single year, here are some milestones:

First Tool	1 January
Fire	1-16 October
Funerary Rites	22 December
Art	28 December
Agriculture & Neolithic Rev.	30 Dec. @ 17:00
Steam Engine	31 Dec. @ 23:20
Nuclear Energy	31 Dec @ 23:54:35

B. The acceleration of certain trends: population, resource depletion, and energy consumption
• Human population growth was slow for about a million years, averaging only about 0.001%/yr. Population of the world probably numbered no more than 10M. Growth begins to escalate about 10,0000yr BP when it accelerates today's rate of 1.7%/yr. Population now stands at 6B and is expanding at rate of 250,000/day, i.e. about 91M/yr (more than 3x the population of Canada). Estimated to be 6.1B by 2000 and (no nuclear holocaust, plague, collision with an asteroid, mass psychosis leading to mass suicides intervening, or collapse of social fabric intervening) will reach 12B by 2040. Growth is not expected to end until after 2100.

  Historical Demographic Stats:

  World Population
  1650	465-545M
  1750	660-733M
  1800	835-915M
  1850	1.1-1.2B
  1900	1.5-1.6B
  1950	2.4B

C. The various energy eras
1. Era of primitive energy use
a) Reliance on energy flows rather than energy stocks
(1) Essentially biological energy
b) Limitations of this kind of energy
(1) Most of the energy consumed goes to maintaining the energy converter homo sapiens in a state to acquire the approximately 3000 kcal/day necessary for survival.
(2) A small amount of energy
2. Era of harnessing of non-human energy sources
a) Period of "Agricultural Revolution" and the first civilizations: begins about 10,000 B.P. and essentially complete about 2000 years ago. Still not over in some societies and areas.
3. Era of using energy stocks rather than energy flows, i.e. non-renewable (fossil) fuels
a) Relatively recent: massive take-off around 1700 in England
(1) The first phase: coal (gives about 3,500 kcal/lb and 500-600 lbs can be produced per person daily in the 18c. Even with 1% efficiency coal provides a new and convenient energy source for thermal and mechanical energy
(2) The second phase: Discovery of oil at Titusville in 1859. Creates what Yergin calls "Hydrocarbon Man"
(3) Nuclear energy (1950s onwards) is another non-renewable resource that may replace or supplement what have become the traditional energy sources
(4) Rapid increase in usage has led to questions of potential shortages that could compromise not only the affluent North American lifestyle and even the existence of civilized life on this planet

A. Published in the same year as the Oil embargo
B. Pessimistic conclusions
1. Present situation can degenerate catastrophically (suddenly and tragically)
a) pollution, agricultural production, industrial production, population, natural resources
2. If nothing done, can pass a point of no return (irreversibilty)
3. Problem must be tackled globally and on several fronts
4. There must be political will and social support for these solutions
a) Political frictions and arms races must be eliminated
C. Systems approach to making predicitions
1. Positive insofar as it goes
2. But deals only with material variables
a) Non-material variables have to be taken into account
D. Sense of radical turning point

A. Title indicates call for smaller economic units, more attention to the personal, doubts about the ideology of growth
B. Reminder of warnings about excessive dependence on oil as a source of energy and the dangers of relying on it for employment, community values, and skills retention.

A. Petroleum and hydrocarbons in the world economy
B. Recent nature of this domination